Every year, my friend Tim asks a question around draft time: of the prospects in this class, which one will make the Hall of Fame? His point is that teams should simply identify that player and draft him regardless of need or projected draft position. A team made up of future Hall of Famers would be quite good. Of course, there is no way to know, but it is a fun exercise.
Of the current 49ers, the ones I think have a good shot at the Hall were not seen as future Hall of Famers when they came out of college. I am speaking of Fred Warner (a 3rd-round pick) and George Kittle (the 5th round). A Hall candidate needs to have a few qualities: he needs to have dominated at his position for most of his career; he needs to have stats that back up the eye test; and he needs to have recognition in terms of awards.
Warner is the definition of the new breed of linebacker and has been considered that by the media (many of whom will be voting) for several years. To back that up, he is a four-time Pro Bowler and four-time first-team All-Pro. Having been in the league for seven years, another three should put him in the Hall, especially if he keeps racking up the accolades.
Kittle has played for eight years, and he's been to six Pro Bowls and twice been an All-Pro. Though he no longer holds it, he set the record for most receiving yards in a season by a tight end. Moreover, while he is currently only 13th among tight ends in career receiving yards, with only a few seasons like the ones he has had recently, he could be in the top 6, ahead of Rob Gronkowski and just behind Shannon Sharpe.
But this is about this year's draft. To judge, I looked at the college production of the most highly-rated prospects and also the positions they play. That can go a long way towards election. The following are the players many consider elite and, therefore, supposedly have the best chance.
Abdul Carter
Carter is generally considered the top player in the draft. However, I do not see him as the one to make it to the Hall. The reason is the requirement for dominance and consistency. Racking up double-digit sacks year after year is a tall order. Myles Garrett comes to mind, with seven seasons out of eight with 10+ sacks, and it was his rookie year when he fell short. TJ Watt, with his 108 (and counting) career sacks, is also in a good position to make the Hall.
Travis Hunter
Hunter is certainly in the running. His difficulty will be dominating on at least one side of the ball. If he indeed does play both ways, the danger is that he will be good at both but not great at either. Of eligible recent receivers, only those with 13,000 or more receiving yards are in the Hall. The longevity combined with consistent dominance is tough. Even one injury could derail the candidacy. As a defensive back, he might have an even more difficult time. The Hall has only 19 pure cornerbacks, and quantifying production is not always easy. Interceptions are one thing, but many with high int totals are not in.
Mason Graham
Graham is a long shot. There are only 18 defensive tackles in the Hall and none since Warren Sapp (class of 2013). Since DTs often don't have the sack numbers that defensive ends or edge rushers do, it is harder to make a stats case for interior D-linemen.
Ashton Jeanty
Since running backs have a statistically better chance of making it in, Jeanty would seem to be one of the more likely draftees to have a good shot. Potentially holding him back will be the team he plays for. He will likely be taken early—and play early—but the big question will be if he will transform the weak franchise or if it will drag him down. A dysfunctional organization, such as Las Vegas (where many mock drafts project him to land), might point to the latter. Fred Taylor had an outstanding career, but playing in Jacksonville has not helped his candidacy. Combine these factors with the fact that the NFL is a pass-oriented league, and I think Jeanty will be on the outside looking in.
Tyler Warren
Warren might have the best chance. While there are not many tight ends in the Hall, the numbers requirements are a little different for them. Ozzie Newsome, Shannon Sharpe, and Antonio Gates (the first two in, that last to be inducted this year) were all prolific pass catchers, but other inductees did not impress as much in that area. John Mackey, for instance, was known for his toughness. Dave Casper went to only one Pro Bowl but won a Super Bowl. And Warren has one characteristic that should help him: versatility. He is apparently outstanding as a pass catcher, blocker, and even ball carrier. Any player who can shine in multiple areas has a better chance of being noticed by the voters.
Of these, Warren would be my choice, with Hunter a close second, but I will throw in two dark horses. First, Jihaad Campbell. The voters like linebackers. With 38 enshrinees, there are more in the Hall than any other position but offensive line (which is actually three positions anyway). There have been 11 elected in the last 7 years. Campbell is a versatile LB with good coverage skills to go along with his tackling, and he can rush the passer. He had more sacks in a part-time pass-rushing role last year than some of the full-time defensive linemen projected to go ahead of him. Predicted to be a top-20 pick but not top 10, Campbell will possibly land with a good team and have the opportunity to start his stat production right away. And because the team will likely be good, he might play in the postseason early in his career. That is another chance to showcase skills for future voters.
The second is even darker, Cam Skattebo. Skattebo was a workhorse at Arizona State, and he is a good receiver out of the backfield. He has no injury history of significance, and while he had a high number of carries during his senior year, he was not worn down over the course of his career. Also, since Skattebo is not expected to be a high pick (the 62nd best player according to ESPN, 70th by Todd McShay, and 94th in Matt Miller's comprehensive list), he might well go to a better team than other backs do. He has the talent to start early in his career—maybe in year 1—the stamina to play for many years, and multiple skills to impress voters.
Check back in 15 years and see how I did.
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