2026 Draft Prospect Watch List and Discussion

Originally posted by 49ers808:
So you would pass on guys like Caleb Downs; Sonny Styles; Ioane and Jeremiah Love…..just because those other positions cost more in free agency when the time comes?

Kickers and Punters aside; if I were building a roster I would focus on adding good players regardless of position. "High impact" is so overblown in my opinion. You mean to tell me that Kyle Hamilton and Nick Emmanwori isn't making high impacts for their teams? Fred Warners "impact" was immediately felt when we no longer had him. People cry till this day about how our guards suck and we lost a SB because of one missing a block. A good guard wouldn't have had an "impact?"

CMC has the biggest impact on our offense; everyone struggles when he's out; both Kyle and Purdy included. I'd bet money right now that Love wins or is at least runner up for OROY; but nah the WR that touches the ball half as many times as he does (if that) has a higher impact. lol

Maybe it's just a poor choice of words. Miss me with that high impact BS; they just higher paid, doesn't make them more impactful

I think youre missing the point of positional value both in form of being an asset and also how much % of salary cap the player takes up.

building a roster and keeping it is a math optimization problem. you get players via FA and draft.

Qbs and wrs and LTs have larger contracts in FA than other positions. BUT they are paid roughly equally if selected through draft.

look at the this article from 2021, and the disparity only gotten worse:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

if on average an edge is paid twice as much as a safety, why would you draft a safety and pay 12m to an edge in FA instead of drafting an edge and pay 5m to a safety in FA ? you can get decent players at safety for near vet minimum. you *never* have that with edges. So from optimization point of view, an edge player is just more valuable, both as an asset (in trade, kinda like Osa netted Dallas a third even though he was making 20m) value-wise AND long-term. You getting 12m production out of player on a rookie deal is simply better than you getting 5m of production, because 12>5 and cap exists.

Originally posted by the_dynasty:

Originally posted by 49ers808:
So you would pass on guys like Caleb Downs; Sonny Styles; Ioane and Jeremiah Love…..just because those other positions cost more in free agency when the time comes?

Kickers and Punters aside; if I were building a roster I would focus on adding good players regardless of position. "High impact" is so overblown in my opinion. You mean to tell me that Kyle Hamilton and Nick Emmanwori isn't making high impacts for their teams? Fred Warners "impact" was immediately felt when we no longer had him. People cry till this day about how our guards suck and we lost a SB because of one missing a block. A good guard wouldn't have had an "impact?"

CMC has the biggest impact on our offense; everyone struggles when he's out; both Kyle and Purdy included. I'd bet money right now that Love wins or is at least runner up for OROY; but nah the WR that touches the ball half as many times as he does (if that) has a higher impact. lol

Maybe it's just a poor choice of words. Miss me with that high impact BS; they just higher paid, doesn't make them more impactful

I think youre missing the point of positional value both in form of being an asset and also how much % of salary cap the player takes up.

building a roster and keeping it is a math optimization problem. you get players via FA and draft.

Qbs and wrs and LTs have larger contracts in FA than other positions. BUT they are paid roughly equally if selected through draft.

look at the this article from 2021, and the disparity only gotten worse:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

if on average an edge is paid twice as much as a safety, why would you draft a safety and pay 12m to an edge in FA instead of drafting an edge and pay 5m to a safety in FA ? you can get decent players at safety for near vet minimum. you *never* have that with edges. So from optimization point of view, an edge player is just more valuable, both as an asset (in trade, kinda like Osa netted Dallas a third even though he was making 20m) value-wise AND long-term. You getting 12m production out of player on a rookie deal is simply better than you getting 5m of production, because 12>5 and cap exists.

I know what positional value is. He used the words high impact. Big difference. Which is why I ended my post with it being maybe a poor choice of words.

Regardless; my point remains. I wouldn't pigeonhole myself in a draft to "positional value" positions in the first round because of math optimization. That's straight up stupid too me. It's football; end of day you want the best players on the field. I guarantee you that I'm not the only one who feels that way and the proof will be in the pudding next week Thursday when every one of those non "high impact" or non "positional value" positions, whatever you wanna call it, gets selected in the first round.

Why? Because this math equation is simple:
RB1 > (or is a better player than) Edge4
S1 > OT5
LB1 > QB2

You get my drift

Originally posted by 49ers808:
So you would pass on guys like Caleb Downs; Sonny Styles; Ioane and Jeremiah Love…..just because those other positions cost more in free agency when the time comes?

Kickers and Punters aside; if I were building a roster I would focus on adding good players regardless of position. "High impact" is so overblown in my opinion. You mean to tell me that Kyle Hamilton and Nick Emmanwori isn't making high impacts for their teams? Fred Warners "impact" was immediately felt when we no longer had him. People cry till this day about how our guards suck and we lost a SB because of one missing a block. A good guard wouldn't have had an "impact?"

CMC has the biggest impact on our offense; everyone struggles when he's out; both Kyle and Purdy included. I'd bet money right now that Love wins or is at least runner up for OROY; but nah the WR that touches the ball half as many times as he does (if that) has a higher impact. lol

Maybe it's just a poor choice of words. Miss me with that high impact BS; they just higher paid, doesn't make them more impactful

All depends on where you're drafting and who else is there…the overall framework remains the same though. There's a reason why OT/QB/EDGE/WR consistently go high in drafts. Theres a reason those positions get paid more and those top end players don't hit FA….while high end players at LB/S/IOL are constantly available in FA.

yes there are premium high end impact positions. There is a hierarchy. THATS why they make more dude lol. It's why folks are calling this a poo poo draft, those higher end positions (blue chip guys) aren't there overall. I think Downs is a better overall talent than Bailey. He's not gonna go higher than him.

CMC impact last yr was as a receiver, that's always been what really separates himself from the other RBs, not as a straight up RB. That was always my issue when people s**t on me about trading for him. I said him with Kyle as a receiver will be special…as a RB we were still getting over 4 YPC with Wilson and whomever at that point. When Barkley got drafted he automatically was a top 5 paid player in the league! That tells you how little the position matters. Seattle let their SB MVP RB walk and it wasn't some $100M deal either.

we lost the SB because of a half a dozen things man…guess what we had a cheap ass vet starting at RG that was playing really good, until he got hurt…folks were crying about our BACKUP guard.

as far as this draft goes and where we are I got no problem going wherever. Those impact position blue chip guys overall just aren't there. I'm telling you if they do take a OG in the first (which I doubt) SF won't be taking advantage of that rookie contract to the max. IOL get paid as much as all the other OL on the 5th yr deal and when tagged. It's the reason Baltimore let their center walk.

Originally posted by 49ers808:
I know what positional value is. He used the words high impact. Big difference. Which is why I ended my post with it being maybe a poor choice of words.

Regardless; my point remains. I wouldn't pigeonhole myself in a draft to "positional value" positions in the first round because of math optimization. That's straight up stupid too me. It's football; end of day you want the best players on the field. I guarantee you that I'm not the only one who feels that way and the proof will be in the pudding next week Thursday when every one of those non "high impact" or non "positional value" positions, whatever you wanna call it, gets selected in the first round.

Why? Because this math equation is simple:
RB1 > (or is a better player than) Edge4
S1 > OT5
LB1 > QB2

You get my drift

Positional value = higher impact positions=money spent on positions.

Why is OT6 or WR 7 gonna go higher than RB2? We all know the answer to this…it's because you can consistently find RBs (or other "less" impactful positions) later in drafts that are still good players. YES there are exceptions and every draft is different.

you toss out things like well if we had a better RG we win the SB, but don't look at the bigger picture…if Bosa or BA weren't there, we're not even in the SB to begin with. Now my issue with SF is not going after some of those "lesser" impact positions (S/IOL) in FA. The money to sign a good vet is much less than those other positions and there's usually better talent available.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49ers808:
So you would pass on guys like Caleb Downs; Sonny Styles; Ioane and Jeremiah Love…..just because those other positions cost more in free agency when the time comes?

Kickers and Punters aside; if I were building a roster I would focus on adding good players regardless of position. "High impact" is so overblown in my opinion. You mean to tell me that Kyle Hamilton and Nick Emmanwori isn't making high impacts for their teams? Fred Warners "impact" was immediately felt when we no longer had him. People cry till this day about how our guards suck and we lost a SB because of one missing a block. A good guard wouldn't have had an "impact?"

CMC has the biggest impact on our offense; everyone struggles when he's out; both Kyle and Purdy included. I'd bet money right now that Love wins or is at least runner up for OROY; but nah the WR that touches the ball half as many times as he does (if that) has a higher impact. lol

Maybe it's just a poor choice of words. Miss me with that high impact BS; they just higher paid, doesn't make them more impactful

All depends on where you're drafting and who else is there…the overall framework remains the same though. There's a reason why OT/QB/EDGE/WR consistently go high in drafts. Theres a reason those positions get paid more and those top end players don't hit FA….while high end players at LB/S/IOL are constantly available in FA.

yes there are premium high end impact positions. There is a hierarchy. THATS why they make more dude lol. It's why folks are calling this a poo poo draft, those higher end positions (blue chip guys) aren't there overall. I think Downs is a better overall talent than Bailey. He's not gonna go higher than him.

CMC impact last yr was as a receiver, that's always been what really separates himself from the other RBs, not as a straight up RB. That was always my issue when people s**t on me about trading for him. I said him with Kyle as a receiver will be special…as a RB we were still getting over 4 YPC with Wilson and whomever at that point. When Barkley got drafted he automatically was a top 5 paid player in the league! That tells you how little the position matters. Seattle let their SB MVP RB walk and it wasn't some $100M deal either.

we lost the SB because of a half a dozen things man…guess what we had a cheap ass vet starting at RG that was playing really good, until he got hurt…folks were crying about our BACKUP guard.

as far as this draft goes and where we are I got no problem going wherever. Those impact position blue chip guys overall just aren't there. I'm telling you if they do take a OG in the first (which I doubt) SF won't be taking advantage of that rookie contract to the max. IOL get paid as much as all the other OL on the 5th yr deal and when tagged. It's the reason Baltimore let their center walk.

Because GMs are stupid. If money is the way we show value then it says Alec Pierce is more valuable than Saquan Barkley. There is not a single team who would choose Pierce over Barkley. Now as someone who played DB and cannot stand WRs I might be a wee bit biased. But WRs since Moss and Owen's have been the loudest pay me b***hes in the league. While their jobs have gotten easier. Every rule change seems to favor them. Gloves are legal stick em. The problem is teams like us or the Colts let a mid WR run his price tag up instead of just letting him walk. If we stop treating these 6s like they're 10s the league will be better. And I don't think it's hard to find a WR to come in and give you juice unlike QB/OT/CB/Edge. We just draft dudes who get hurt and miss the season. There are elite guys like Chase, JSN, JJ and Nacua and they deserve to be the top paid guys. Not some asshat named Aiyuk.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:
Because GMs are stupid. If money is the way we show value then it says Alec Pierce is more valuable than Saquan Barkley. There is not a single team who would choose Pierce over Barkley. Now as someone who played DB and cannot stand WRs I might be a wee bit biased. But WRs since Moss and Owen's have been the loudest pay me b***hes in the league. While their jobs have gotten easier. Every rule change seems to favor them. Gloves are legal stick em. The problem is teams like us or the Colts let a mid WR run his price tag up instead of just letting him walk. If we stop treating these 6s like they're 10s the league will be better. And I don't think it's hard to find a WR to come in and give you juice unlike QB/OT/CB/Edge. We just draft dudes who get hurt and miss the season. There are elite guys like Chase, JSN, JJ and Nacua and they deserve to be the top paid guys. Not some asshat named Aiyuk.

I think you are bias lol. Look say what you will about BA, buddy could run some filthy routes and blocked his ass off. Up until those last couple games he has great hands as well. Dude went full AWOL and who knows now. Very weird situation.

End of the day GMs are running the teams and they deal with the coaching staff. Thats who they value. That's where the money gets allocated to. Having a top end WR on a rookie contract is MUCH more valuable than having a OG or S on a rookie deal. There's constantly good IOL/S/LBers that get to FA. Meanwhile if the Doubs of the world make it to FA, they're getting paid as much as the top 5 S/OGs in the league.

I'll add, every draft is different and where you're drafting/needs matter.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Having a top end WR on a rookie contract is MUCH more valuable than having a OG or S on a rookie deal.

This is why youre both correct. There is zero argument that the quoted statement isnt true. But at some point S2 is more likely to become a top end safety during their rookie contract than WR6 or whatever is to become on theirs.

After watching absolutely zero tape and only going off of others opinions, I think it should be
R1 Boston
R2 Barham

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Having a top end WR on a rookie contract is MUCH more valuable than having a OG or S on a rookie deal.

This is why youre both correct. There is zero argument that the quoted statement isnt true. But at some point S2 is more likely to become a top end safety during their rookie contract than WR6 or whatever is to become on theirs.

Nah; that quoted part is why it's hard to get into debates with NY. He added "top end" to WR but subtly left that part out for the OG or S, which makes it appear that the WR is more valuable than the OG and S.

My point with that is money doesn't make the WR on a rookie contract more valuable or more impactful than a rookie OG or S if the rookie OG or S is a better player at their positions than that WR is at his.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Positional value = higher impact positions=money spent on positions.

Why is OT6 or WR 7 gonna go higher than RB2? We all know the answer to this…it's because you can consistently find RBs (or other "less" impactful positions) later in drafts that are still good players. YES there are exceptions and every draft is different.

you toss out things like well if we had a better RG we win the SB, but don't look at the bigger picture…if Bosa or BA weren't there, we're not even in the SB to begin with. Now my issue with SF is not going after some of those "lesser" impact positions (S/IOL) in FA. The money to sign a good vet is much less than those other positions and there's usually better talent available.

I mean you can consistently find WRs later in drafts that are still good players all the same; but that statement isn't why I quoted this post.

It's this one: if Bosa or BA weren't there, we're not even in the SB to begin with
You think CMC and Fred Warner was "less impactful or less valuable" or whatever you want to call it because of the positions they play on our way to that SB? I'll say we aren't in that SB without them to begin with all the same. If that's the feeling than I have nothing further to say.

I just don't get the logic.

Mike McGlinchey plays OT and gets paid way more than CMC and Saquon Barkley…..therefore he is more impactful and more valuable. Typing that feels almost as stupid as it sounds.

All in on this guy

Gotta keep this guy in check if drafted.

Originally posted by 49ers808:
Nah; that quoted part is why it's hard to get into debates with NY. He added "top end" to WR but subtly left that part out for the OG or S, which makes it appear that the WR is more valuable than the OG and S.

My point with that is money doesn't make the WR on a rookie contract more valuable or more impactful than a rookie OG or S if the rookie OG or S is a better player at their positions than that WR is at his.

I'm using contracts and where draft capital is spent to prove my point. Follow the money and compensation because that's absolutely matters.

NFL pays for those premium positions for a couple reasons, one they are more impactful down to down, you can disagree and that's fine. Two, it's harder to find really good players at those premium positions. You gotta spend up for them.

Look at the history of the draft and where those high end talents were taken at those premium positions vs say OG/S/LB/RB. Yes there's always exceptions…but the numbers don't lie.

Why is it every free agency there's always in their prime S/LBer/RB/IOL available? You're never finding top in their prime QB/EDGE/OT/WRs just making it to FA.

this draft is a little different in that there isn't those true blue chip guys at those premium positions. Collectively this is a weaker draft overall. I got no problem going S/OG or whatever at 27 this yr if they're just so vastly better than whomever else is there….just be prepared to see them walk in 4 to 5 yrs. End of the day you can only draft who's there.

I haven't done a mock yet and I'm actually considering taking LG (in a trade down scenario). I still think it will be WR/EDGE/OT though.

Originally posted by Kolohe:


Gotta keep this guy in check if drafted.

By all accounts he's generally very reserved

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by Kolohe:


Gotta keep this guy in check if drafted.

By all accounts he's generally very reserved

Been trying to watch interviews on Barham and it seems like a well spoken person, pretty cool. He's like Greenlaw from what I'm gathering, off the field pretty cool and respectful but on the field just very passionate.